| Mann–Kendall test | Pettitt test | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kendall Tau | p-value (bilateral) | Alpha | Sen slope | Breakup date | p-value | Average before break | Average after breakage | Rate of change | |
1985–2014 (observed) | 0.310 | 0.016 | 0.05 | 2.608 | 1993 | 0.003 | 95.6 | 166 | 73,1 |
1985–2014 (simulated) | 0.166 | 0.205 | 0.05 | 1.101 | 1999 | 0.152 | 136 | 168 | 23,4 |
SSP 245 | − 0.087 | 0.236 | 0.05 | − 0.212 | 2057 | 0.653 | 89.5 | 83,9 | -6,2 |
SSP 585 | − 0.292 |  < 0.0001 | 0.05 | − 0.698 | 2059 |  < 0.0001 | 100.7 | 62,5 | -37,9 |